Don't Tell Me I'll Get A 10X Return!

Tough to believe but in many instances 10X is not an impressive return for experienced angels (in other words, angel groups) who have a financial motivation for investing in startups. VC's probably have 1 in 4, or 1 in 5 chance of their investments making a substantial return, with the other 3 or 4 contributing little to portfolio return. For angels, who invest earlier, the odds of a company being a shining star in the portfolio are in the 1 in 10 range. So figure it out; if you are the portfolio star -- and every entrepreneur raising money must think like that -- then a 10X return just makes up other 9 who are not! So the angel breaks only even.

Angels therefore often expect returns of greater than 10X, up to 30X or more depending on the estimated time is takes for the company to achieve a liquidity event and the extent of expected dilution by later investors. In terms of IRR, angels and VC's are going to expect greater than 30% per year on their entire portfolio, and that includes the not-so-good ones, given the risk profiles of typical early stage deals.

Inexperienced angels, or those who have motivations beyond just making money, may not think this way so they may be more like family and friends and suitable for money raising in the ten of thousands (as opposed to hundreds of thousands). But you have to be careful at what valuation you sell them stock – but that story is for a later time – keep watching this blog!

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